Election Update: July 27, 2020

14 Weeks Out, Florida and Arizona Show A Blue Tint

Two states have moved toward Biden since last week, now pushing him up over 300 Electoral Votes.

Teagan’s map has moved Florida and Arizona to Lean Biden.

Florida’s movement is largely on the prediction of Cook Political Report, who believes Florida’s COVID-19 epidemic, and the failure of its Republican Governor, Ron DeSantis – a key Trump ally – in reigning in the virus, moved the state’s voting bloc away from Trump. Florida at Lean Dem seems a bit rosy to be, as Florida is almost always a 50-50, and it is now considered Trump’s home state. In 2018, it seemed pretty clear that DeSantis would lose the governor’s race; he was trailing his Democratic opponent, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, by as much as seven points just days before the election before DeSantis went on to shock pundits and narrowly win.

I think the fundamentals right now point to Biden being ahead, but Florida is tricky and I would still call it a tossup.

Arizona on the other hand seems to be pretty favorable to Biden right now. The pandemic aside, Arizona has been trending blue for a while. Trump only won it by 3 in 2018 and Democrats won several statewide races in 2018 including one of its U.S. Senate seats. With the pandemic raging in Arizona, a marquee Senate race where the Democratic candidate has opened up a big lead, and its Republican Governor, Doug Ducey’s popularity waining, I think it is safe to say Biden has the upper hand in the desert Southwest right now.

Tossups remain the same: Texas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia. I would still put Maine’s 2nd District there as well.

All eyes now are on who Biden picks as a running mate. Odds favor Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois or former U.N. Ambassador and National Security Advisor Susan Rice. It’s possible we will know before next week’s update.

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