Election Update: August 10, 2020

Little Change With 10 Weeks To Go

Biden’s still ahead, though his popular vote lead seemed to have shrank by a point or two. He is still up high single digits though and hovering at or just over 50 percent of the vote.

I’ve decided to move Florida and Maine’s 2nd District into the Tossup column because I’m just not ready to believe they’re leaning toward Biden. I expect that Biden will win them both, as well as North Carolina, and Trump will win Texas and Iowa and probably Ohio and Georgia (I’m 50/50 on both).

One question on my mind is, how many truly undecided voters are left? How hardened are people in their choices and can anyone really be moved in the next few months? With COVID-19 unlikely to recede to forgettable levels and little chance of an economic rebound before Nov. 3, what changes this race dramatically before people vote? Does anything?

We’re expecting a running mate announcement this week. Let’s see if it has any effect.


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