Election Update- October 6, 2020

Is It Over Yet? I Want To Get Off This Ride

Boy, what a decade the last week was. Between a horrendous debate performance by Donald Trump to his catching COVID-19, going to the hospital and then making a spectacle of the entire thing, it certainly does feel like the Trump train is derailing at a high speed. But we thought that in 2016 too (we are as far out from the election as we were when the Access Hollywood tape dropped) and, well, we know what happened then.

Still, national polls show Biden’s lead expanding from high single digits to low double digits, which is landslide territory. Recent polls in tossup states North Carolina, Georgia and Florida show Biden slightly ahead, with Iowa and Ohio tied. Gun to my head, I’d say Biden wins them all right now except Iowa, with Ohio being the only one I am 50-50 on. But the Trump campaign has apparently went dark in Ohio and Iowa, so who knows that’s up there. I think in a landslide, Biden will sweep most, if not all, the tossup states like Obama did in 2008.

Watch Texas though. I still think Trump is ahead there, and polls seem to put him at around a three point lead, but Biden, now rolling in dough, is investing in the Lone Star State. That would be the next shoe to drop for the Republicans.

Beyond that, there isn’t much for Biden to reach for except maybe make a play for Alaska, South Carolina, Missouri, Kansas and Montana – all states that have seen the possibility of a close race and four of which have Senate races the Democrats would like to win.

25 days left.


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