Election Update- October 13, 2020

Biden’s Lead Is Unrelenting Three Weeks Out

We’re only 20 days until the final votes are cast in the 2020 Presidential Election, and…nothing has really changed. If anything, the race has only slipped more from Trump.

Swing state polling has been showing Biden cement a lead in the key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump’s campaign has apparently written off Michigan, the narrowest of the Obama-Trump states from 2016, but he’s still fighting for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where recent polls have shown Biden up around 10 points and over 50 percent. It’s hard to come back from that with three weeks left and voting haven already begun.

As far as “already voting,” according to Florida Professor Michael McDonald’s voting-reporting site ElectProject.org, more than 13 million people have ALREADY voted; that’s close to 10 percent of expected turnout. That number will increase as more and more states begin early voting. Voters waited as long as 11 hours to vote in battleground Georgia this week. In Wisconsin, Over 120,000 votes have already been cast in Dane County, the state’s Democratic bastion which includes the state capital of Madison. Only about 310,000 people voted in total in Dane County in 2018, meaning we’ve already reached 40 percent of 2018 turnout in that county, where Hillary Clinton won 70 percent of the vote.

Georgia is still a tossup, and perhaps the closest state right now, along with Iowa, as polls put both states at a 50-50 tossup. Ohio remains a tossup, though recent polling has shown Trump a point or two up.

I still haven’t moved Texas to tossup, though maybe it should be. Polls show Trump a couple of points up, but Biden and the Democrats are pouring a lot of money into the Lone Star State and local polling is showing Biden doing better in tossup state legislative districts than 2018 Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, who came within 2 points of winning. So we’ll see.

North Carolina, Florida and Maine’s 2nd District remain tossups, though Biden has been up consistently in polls recently in all three, and at over 50 percent in Florida and North Carolina. I think Biden would win them if the election was today.

But it’s not, it’s still 20 days away.

2 thoughts on “Election Update- October 13, 2020

  1. Thanks for the run-down. That’s a pretty good projection. I don’t expect much out of Texas besides more blatant efforts to stop the vote..I would like to know what you think about the Senate. Whether or not it will be flipped. A President Biden won’t be able to do anything with a Moscow Mitch Senate.

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