Election Update – October 20, 2020

Alright, I’m Buying Tossup Texas Now.

Ok I’m sold.

Astonishing early voting turnout and continued close polling has convinced me Texas may actually be a tossup. As of Tuesday night, nearly 5 million people have voted, more than half of the 2016 turnout. Only Vermont has reached 50 percent of 2016 turnout. Now some of this is due to population growth – Texas has had an influx of people moving into it since 2016, especially in the last year, and Republicans do account for some of that. Indeed there has been a steady flow of California conservatives who have relocated to Texas recently, but turnout is up in blue areas of the state, notably Houston and Austin.

I still think Trump will squeeze out a win in Texas, but the fundamentals tell me it will be closed and Biden victory there is possible.

None of the other tossups have changed. Iowa and Georgia remain genuine tossups. Ohio I think has a slight Trump lean, while North Carolina, Florida and Maine’s 2nd District slightly lean Biden. The Democratic challenger remains in good position in the Upper Midwest. Pennsylvania and Arizona seem a bit shaky, but Biden’s still ahead in both I think. The nightmare might come if Biden is slightly behind in Arizona and not at 270 when we go to sleep Election Night. That happened to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) in 2018. She ended Election Night trailing now Sen. Martha McSally, but took the lead days later when mail-in votes were counted and won by three points.

I dread a situation where Trump leads on Election Night, but loses days later.

13 days left.

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