Election Update: August 18, 2020

Kamala Harris Joins The Ticket, And The Race Continues To Be Stable.

Well, the Democrats have a ticket. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden picked California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Harris was the favorite for the job, and will become the third woman to be nominated by a major party for vice president after Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin, and first woman of color.

It’s too early to tell if Harris changes the election dynamics in any way, but so far the race remains stable. I waited until Tuesday to do the update this week so I can offer some commentary on the first night of the Democratic National Convention.

There were strong speeches by Sen. Bernie Sanders, appealing to party unity, and former Ohio Governor John Kasich, a longtime Republican critic of Donald Trump. Th strongest speaker of the night though was definitely former First Lady Michelle Obama, who was visibly shaken and angry in a way I’ve never seen her. She placed herself in the position of moral compass and strongly put in terms how important and vital this election is for Democrats.

I’m skeptical it will have any effect on the polls, as Biden has had a pretty stable lead for months now. The electoral map hasn’t really changed, except I moved Texas back to Tilting Republican from Tossup. This is in line with recent polling showing Trump ahead by a few points. It will still be close though. I’ve moved Florida back to the Lean Biden because he is polling consistently at 50 percent. Arizona also remains blue as Biden is polling at 49 percent with a 3 to 4 point lead consistently.

Tossups remain the same; Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

If the election was held today, Biden would win handily. That was true 11 weeks ago as well.

There’s 11 weeks until the election.

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